Our Work
13 Jan

Is NATO Prepared for the Future? Reflections on NATO 2030: United for a New Era

<strong>Wilson Center</strong>

by Wess Mitchell
Media Appearances
10 Jan

US risks enraging China by easing limits on Taiwan relations

<strong>Financial Times</stron

by Elbridge Colby
Media Commentary
10 Jan

State Dept. Moves to Ease Restrictions on Meeting With Taiwan Officials

<strong>New York Times</strong

by Elbridge Colby
Media Commentary
10 Jan

NYSE begins delisting China’s three largest state-run telecoms groups

<strong>Financial Times</stron

by Elbridge Colby
Media Commentary
28 Dec

Pushback on Xi’s Vision for China Spreads Beyond U.S.

<strong>Wall Street Journal</s

by Wess Mitchell
Media Commentary
24 Dec

How NATO Manages the “Bear” and the “Dragon”

<strong>ScienceDirect</strong>

by Elbridge Colby
Articles
21 Dec

Flareup feared in South China Sea due to power vacuum in U.S.

<strong>The Asahi Shimbun</str

by Elbridge Colby
Media Commentary
18 Dec

Live: The NATO 2030 Report, with Wess Mitchell

<strong>CNAS</strong> | Wess M

by Wess Mitchell
Media Appearances
16 Dec

Reflections on NATO: United for a New Era

<strong>CEPA</strong> | At a m

by Wess Mitchell
Media Appearances
16 Dec

Sources of Chinese Conduct: A Debate

<strong>CFTNI</strong> | More

by Elbridge Colby
Media Appearances
16 Dec

Two Possible Futures An outlook on EU-US relations

<strong>Köerber Stiftung</str

by Elbridge Colby
Articles
10 Dec

Under what conditions will we open to Russia

<strong>Limes Online</strong>

by Wess Mitchell
Media Commentary
09 Dec

Biden to face wary allies after four years of Trump’s ‘America First’ rhetoric

<strong>Washington Post</stron

by Wess Mitchell
Media Commentary
08 Dec

Questions swirl over Austin’s limited experience

<strong>Politico</strong> | Jo

by Elbridge Colby
Media Commentary
02 Dec

Interview with the former US Deputy Secretary of State

<strong>la Repubblica</strong>

by Wess Mitchell
Media Commentary
01 Dec

NATO Should Expand Its Focus to Include China, Report Says

<strong>Wall Street Journal</s

by Wess Mitchell
Media Commentary
30 Nov

NATO Needs to Adapt Quickly to Stay Relevant for 2030, Report Urges

<strong>New York Times</strong

by Wess Mitchell
Media Commentary
25 Nov

NATO 2030: United for a New Era

<strong>NATO</strong> | At the

by Wess Mitchell
Publications
21 Nov

Preparing for a new government’ in earnest…What are the challenges facing the Korean Peninsula?

<strong>CFTNI</strong> | Follo

by Elbridge Colby
Media Appearances
17 Nov

Taiwan Roundtable: Cross-Strait Relations in Pandemic Times

<strong>Sigur Center for Asian

by Elbridge Colby
Video and interviews
TMI-logo-blue
TMI-smalllogo-blue
  • Home
  • About
  • What We Do
  • Who We Are
  • Our Work
  • Contact Us

How NATO Manages the “Bear” and the “Dragon”

December 24, 2020
|
By Elbridge Colby
|
Articles

in Conversation with Nikolas Gvosdev

In March 2020, the secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Jens Stoltenberg, convened a “reflection group” to examine how the trans-Atlantic alliance can adapt to the new security challenges of the 2020s and beyond. As we await the final report and recommendation of this group of experts, Orbis Editor Nikolas Gvosdev asked two distinguished practitioner-analysts to offer their own reflections and to discuss their perspectives on the future of the alliance and the next steps that NATO should be taking in this new era of systemic rivalry, particularly with the world’s authoritarian great powers.

Nikolas Gvosdev: Which is the bigger challenge, China or Russia? Or are they equivalent?

Elbridge Colby: China is by a very considerable margin the more significant challenge to U.S. interests. The fundamental U.S. interest abroad is in denying another state the ability to dominate a key region like Asia or Europe. This could allow such a state to prejudice or deny our trade, access to markets, and so forth. China is a much greater threat on both of these scores: it is a far larger economy and thus can mount a much more plausible challenge to establish hegemony over its region than Russia can over Europe, and Asia is the world’s largest economy. So, the top priority must be to deny China hegemony over Asia. That said, Russia remains a challenge in Europe, and, in particular, is a concrete military threat in Eastern NATO; ensuring Russia does not see a plausible “theory of victory” in this area needs to be the priority focus for the Atlantic Alliance.

Ian Brzezinski: China and Russia both pose significant challenges to the United States. Both have become revisionist powers whose territorial ambitions portend to disrupt the international order that has been the basis for unprecedented peace, freedom, and prosperity since the end of World War II.

Moscow and Beijing have both demonstrated a propensity to use force against other neighbors. Russia continues to occupy portions of Ukraine and Georgia. China recently attacked Indian forces in the Himalayas, and its aggressive actions continue in the South China Sea. Both nations use their militaries to harass U.S. civilian and military ships and aircraft. Both exercise new technologies, most notably cyber and social media, to infiltrate and undermine the United States, its allies, and partners.


ScienceDirect

Read More
Two Possible Futures An outlook on EU-US relations
Elbridge Colby

About Elbridge Colby

Elbridge Colby is co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition.
Site Map
  • Home
  • About
  • What We Do
  • Who We Are
  • Our Work
  • Contact Us
Recent Work
  • shutterstock_otherversion_0
    January 13, 2021
    Is NATO Prepared for the Future? Reflections on NATO 2030: United for a New Era
  • ft-china-taiwan
    January 10, 2021
    US risks enraging China by easing limits on Taiwan relations
  • merlin_181018080_0432addb-5abf-4896-8e16-f59a64c0fdfa-superJumbo
    January 10, 2021
    State Dept. Moves to Ease Restrictions on Meeting With Taiwan Officials

The Marathon Initiative © 2020 All Rights Reserved